San Francisco Real Estate Market Trends: Fall 2025

San Francisco Real Estate Market Trends for Fall 2025

The San Francisco real estate market is experiencing one of its most dramatic rebounds in recent years, driven primarily by the city's accelerating AI boom. Recent market activity has been impressive, with overall home sales jumping significantly compared to the previous year, while luxury home sales have also increased substantially. Median sales prices have climbed, and new-listing activity has nearly doubled in recent months, signaling strong momentum as we move through the fall selling season.​

This surge comes as San Francisco rents are rising at the fastest rate in the entire country, with median asking rents for a one-bedroom unit reaching approximately $3,100, representing a massive 12% increase from the previous year. The vacancy rate has dropped to just 3.8%, far below the national average of 7.1%, creating a competitive environment for both renters and homebuyers. If you're ready to buy a home in San Francisco, working with experienced San Francisco real estate agents is a smart first step.​

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

As we move through fall, 30-year mortgage rates hover around 6.3%, significantly lower than the 7% rates seen in early 2025. The Federal Reserve's first rate reduction of the year, a quarter-point cut in September, had minimal immediate impact on mortgage rates, though additional cuts are likely before year's end.​ We recommend tracking current mortgage rates on MortgageNewsDaily.com.

A note for prospective buyers: many of our San Francisco homebuyer clients secure rates approximately 1% below headline numbers thanks to strong banking relationships and alternative financing options. If you need a trusted local lender recommendation who truly understands San Francisco financing, our team is happy to connect you with the right professionals.​

Supply and Demand Dynamics

The dynamics driving the current SF housing market are straightforward but powerful. The number of listings going into contract has soared compared to the previous year, while year-over-year comparisons show both active listings and price reductions have fallen. This combination of increasing demand and declining supply has created pressure across the market.​

Real estate isn't monolithic, and there's certainly no single "national housing market". Even within San Francisco, each district and neighborhood operates differently. Property type matters significantly too. Single-family homes have seen consistently high demand relative to supply for years, while condos have experienced more volatility.​

Neighborhood-Specific Condo Markets

The condo market tells an interesting story about how location dramatically affects inventory levels and sales timelines. While single-family homes remain in a seller's market with just 1.2 to 1.7 months of supply, the condo market has evolved differently across neighborhoods.​

Urban centers like South of Market (SoMa) and South Beach, where many condos are concentrated, have more available listing supply compared to neighborhoods with a more residential feel like Noe Valley and Hayes Valley. Hayes Valley has become a particular hotspot for AI professionals, contributing to tighter inventory in that area. For buyers and sellers looking to understand specific neighborhood dynamics and listing availability, we have detailed San Francisco neighborhood information and current listings across the city.​

CHART: Months of Supply for condos in San Francisco neighborhoods, 3 month rolling average

Price Trends Across Property Types

Median sale prices for both single-family homes and condos have shown steady recovery and growth over the past year. Single-family homes continue to command premium prices with robust buyer competition, and the condo market has seen strong price gains recently.​

However, while prices have recovered considerably, they haven't fully retraced the mid-2022 peak that was reached just before the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation. The best San Francisco Realtors understand how to position properties strategically in this evolving market. Since 2002, we've helped clients navigate all sorts of challenging transactions successfully.​

CHART: San Francisco HOUSE median sales price growth, 2023-2025

CHART: San Francisco CONDO median sales price growth, 2023-2025

Understanding Market Seasonality

Fall represents the second-busiest season for San Francisco real estate sales, following the spring market. The typical pattern includes a spring rush, a summer lull for vacations and breaks, then a second wind in fall before holiday season slowdowns begin in mid-November. That said, San Francisco real estate is a year-round market thanks to consistently pleasant weather and strong underlying demand for well-priced, well-presented properties.​

The most important consideration remains personal timing. When is the right moment for your family, career, finances, and long-term plans? However, if you have complete flexibility, understanding seasonal patterns can provide strategic advantages.​

Interestingly, the "best" times to buy and sell aren't necessarily what most people expect. For buyers, the holiday season offers specific benefits including less competition as many pause their search, and more motivated sellers willing to negotiate while others have withdrawn listings to wait for spring. For sellers, some of the year's best-performing sales happen before the spring rush, typically January through March rather than April through June. This occurs because buyers emerge after New Years ready to spend bonuses and fulfill resolutions, while sellers tend to "wait and see" how spring develops. Listing your home before other sellers means you can capture early buyer enthusiasm. Our seller services page provides more information about strategic timing and preparation.​

What Really Matters Beyond Timing

Strategic pricing and presentation outweigh calendar timing every time. Cleaning, staging, smart improvements like fresh paint, and enhanced curb appeal make tremendous differences. For buyers, quality representation with an expert agent who can identify the right homes and neighborhoods for your needs, then structure competitive offers without overpaying, matters far more than the season.​

Your two biggest considerations, buying or selling, should be: 1) Is the timing right for your personal situation? and 2) What kind of representation will guide and support you through the process? Everything else follows from there. At Vivre Real Estate, we're here to enhance your home life with authentic guidance and strategic thinking.​

AI Wealth Reshaping the Market

The artificial intelligence boom has become the dominant force driving San Francisco's housing resurgence. Tech stocks have surged on AI investment, and liquidity events at local AI companies like OpenAI's massive tender offer allowing employees to sell company shares at a $500 billion valuation have left real estate agents optimistic about sustained demand.​

All this investment has led to a big surge in demand, with some properties that previously received no offers now fielding multiple bids. The city is "flush with cash right now, and there's not enough inventory to keep up with it," according to market analysts. AI professionals are touring everything from $2 million condos to $20 million houses, and this wealth effect will continue driving demand.​

More homes sold above $20 million in San Francisco last year than ever before, a trend attributed largely to AI's rise. San Francisco's "pending ratio," a comparison of demand versus supply, leapt higher by 15 percentage points year-over-year, an enormous increase. Most analysts directly attribute these large market shifts to the rapidly accelerating AI startup boom. Many AI industry workers have been selling stock in privately held companies like OpenAI and Anthropic on secondary markets to fund down payments on San Francisco homes. For anyone interested in learning more about this trend, our SF real estate newsletter regularly covers AI's impact on the market along with local news and other informative updates.​

Economic Indicators and Market Stability

While Wall Street reaches new all-time highs, some economic indicators raise questions. The dollar has fallen 10% while gold has risen 50% year-to-date. Consumer confidence nationally remains relatively low, with significant concerns about personal finances, employment, and inflation, though affluent consumers deeply invested in stock markets feel less concerned than low and middle-income segments.​

Real estate represents a "sticky" asset class that doesn't move as wildly up and down as stock markets. It's a precious, limited resource, particularly relevant on San Francisco's 7x7-mile peninsula, making it a solid way to diversify and safeguard investments during uncertain and inflationary times.​

Looking Ahead This Fall

Fall traditionally represents a peak period for luxury home sales in San Francisco, and early indicators suggest 2025 will follow that pattern with strong activity already underway. The Federal Reserve is expected to make additional rate cuts before year's end, which could provide further support to housing market activity, though the direct impact on mortgage rates remains uncertain.​

The combination of robust demand, limited inventory, rising prices, and strong sales activity positions San Francisco as one of the strongest real estate markets in the entire Bay Area. As top SF Realtors with over 500 five-star reviews and experience helping clients navigate all sorts of challenging transactions since 2002, we're here to help you make sense of this dynamic market.​

Ready to explore your options? Reach out to schedule an initial consultation to discuss your personal situation and see if we're a good fit. Contact us today. We'd love to help.