Busiest Times of the Year for Real Estate in San Francisco: A Data-Driven Look

What Are the Busiest Times of the Year for Real Estate in San Francisco?

If you're familiar with the San Francisco real estate market, you probably already know it has its highs and lows throughout the year. But when exactly are the busiest times for new listings and home sales? Whether you're a potential seller looking to time your listing right or a buyer hoping to find the best deal, understanding market patterns is key. So, let's dive into what the data tells us about seasonality in San Francisco real estate and how recent years are shaping new trends.

Understanding San Francisco’s Real Estate Market Seasonality

Looking at monthly listing activity over the past decade, clear trends emerge that show when the market tends to heat up and when it cools down. Overall, spring, early summer, and September are the busiest times for new real estate listings in San Francisco, while winter months and late summer months tend to see a slowdown.

Spring and Summer: The Peak of Real Estate Listings

Historically, some of the highest numbers of new listings hit the market between April and June. This trend has been consistent, with May being one of the strongest months in particular. 

For example, in May 2019, we saw 731 new listings, contributing a significant 10% of that year’s total. Fast forward to May 2022, and the number of new listings surged to 829 (again, 10%), showing that May tends to be a high point in the year.

Why the increase in spring and summer? Well, weather certainly plays a role, but it's also about timing. Sellers often aim to list their homes when buyer demand is higher, and spring is when many (but certainly not all) buyers begin their search. 

September Spikes: The Second Surge

Interestingly, there’s another period where the San Francisco real estate market experiences a notable spike in listings: September. Year after year, we see a surge in activity as sellers who missed the spring rush look to capitalize on the active market once San Franciscans return from summer travels. 

Over the past decade, September has consistently (and increasingly) been one of the top-performing months for new listings. Let’s look at the numbers:

• In 2014, there were 831 new listings in September, accounting for 12% of the total listings that year.
• In 2019, September hit 1,103 new listings, making up an impressive 16% of the annual total.
• And in 2023, the 937 new listings in September made up 15% of the annual total. 

September’s contributions to the year’s total listings typically range from 12% to 16%, making it a critical month for both buyers and sellers. This second surge is especially useful for sellers who want to avoid the more competitive spring months or for buyers looking for fresh listings after the summer slowdown.

Late Fall and Winter: Slower, But Still Active

While the market begins to cool off, activity doesn’t disappear entirely in the fall. For instance, in October 2023, San Francisco saw 565 new listings, accounting for 9% of that year’s total. 

Winter, particularly around the holidays, is the slowest period. December, year after year, posts the lowest new listing numbers, making up just 4% to 5% of the annual total. Take December 2023, for example: it only saw 137 new listings, a significant drop compared to September’s 937. 

However, savvy buyers might find that the slower winter months offer less competition and more room for negotiation!

Listing vs. Selling: The Lag

In real estate, there's typically a noticeable gap between when a property is listed and when it's officially sold. This lag is primarily due to two key factors: the time it takes to find a buyer and the time required to close the deal, including the escrow process.

• Listings peak first: Homeowners usually list their properties during busy times—typically spring or early summer—when buyer interest is high. However, just because a property is listed doesn’t mean it will sell immediately. It can take weeks or even months for the right buyer to make an accepted offer.
• The sales lag behind: Once a buyer is secured, the property enters the escrow process, where paperwork, inspections, appraisals, and other closing tasks must be completed. This process often takes an additional 30 to 60 days. So, while listings might peak in May, the sales often don't peak until a month or two later, as homes take time to go through escrow and finalize the sale.

For example, if many homes are listed in May, it's common to see a spike in sales in June or July. This lag reflects both the time needed to secure a buyer and the time it takes to close through escrow. In slower markets, this lag might be even more pronounced due to longer selling times and fewer active buyers.

What This Means for Home Buyers and Sellers in San Francisco

While it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that the busiest months are the best for buying or selling, it’s important to look at the whole picture. Activity levels are a useful guide, but there are also good reasons why the slower months can be just as advantageous.

• For Sellers: Listing your home in May or September will put you in the midst of the most active periods, which can increase your exposure and the number of interested buyers. However, this can also mean more competition. If you’re looking to stand out and avoid a crowded market, listing in a quieter month—like July or February—can give your property more attention. In slower months, buyers might have fewer choices, which can work in your favor.
• For Buyers: While spring and September offer the most options, these are also the times when competition is at its peak. If you’re looking for a deal, it might be worth exploring homes in winter months, when there’s less buyer activity. Sellers during these quieter periods are often motivated, and you could have more room to negotiate. Additionally, fewer buyers can mean a less stressful and more flexible home-buying process.

The San Francisco Real Estate Market in 2024

The San Francisco real estate market is always evolving, influenced by external factors like economic shifts, interest rates, and lifestyle changes such as the increasing prevalence of remote work. As we look ahead to 2024, it’s clear that while certain patterns hold steady—like the spring and fall spikes in activity—unexpected factors could reshape the landscape at any time.

Sellers should remain flexible and strategic, paying attention to broader market signals such as interest rate changes or emerging buyer preferences. Listing during peak times can be advantageous, but being adaptable and ready to move quickly in response to market fluctuations could give you an edge.

Buyers, meanwhile, should stay informed and consider timing their purchases based on personal needs as much as market conditions. While winter months may offer less competition, interest rates or housing supply issues could also affect your decision.

At Vivre Real Estate, we understand that navigating San Francisco’s dynamic real estate market can feel overwhelming. Whether you’re looking to sell or buy, our experienced team is here to guide you every step of the way. With personalized support and a deep understanding of local market trends, we’ll help you make informed decisions that align with your goals. No matter what 2024 brings, we’re here to help you succeed!