Chain Reaction: Making Sense of Changing SF Bay Area Real Estate

Hi friends,

 

When the market starts to transition, it can happen quite abruptly. (Read Danielle’s quote on this and more in the SF Standard.)

 

The recent triple-whammy of rising mortgage rates, tumbling stocks, and fresh economic uncertainty has rapidly changed the calculus for anyone looking to buy property.

 

You might be wondering where you stand with respect to the market and your goals. If you have questions about your options, please don’t hesitate to reach out. We are here to consult on your situation and help make the best decision that’s right for you. That said, there is room for optimism in this real estate market.

 

For one thing, real estate isn’t the problem this time. Unlike back in 2007, today’s ratio of mortgage debt to disposable income is very low. A Great Recession-style crash is unlikely, though we already seem to be in some kind of correction.

 

And (this may sound crazy) mortgage rates are still pretty good. What do I mean? Well, in my 20+ years experience, buyers here in SF use ARM products far more often than the archetypal 30-year, fixed-rate loan. The average 5/1 ARM is closer to 4% right now—not too shabby.

 

We are not in the predictions business.

 

However, taking a cue from other corrections of the past 40 years, we might be due for a period of flat appreciation, or perhaps a price adjustment of 5–10%.

 

This is hardest on sellers who bought recently, with values back to what they paid, or in some cases even lower. It’s easier on longer-term homeowners who enjoyed 25% appreciation over the past half-decade.

 

We can’t tell you how to perfectly time the market (no one can, except by accident). But there are few who regret buying Bay Area real estate after 5 or 10 years.

 

Real estate is personal, so please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions. As always, we are happy and grateful to help you and anyone you send our way!

 

Warmly,

The Vivre Real Estate team

 

 

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Five charts explaining why inflation is at a 40-year high – Washington Post

 

It’s official: Bay Area home values are finally going down – SF Chronicle

 

Why Mortgage Rates Matter For Cash Buyers Of Houses – Forbes

 

What’s Up With the Crazy Housing Market? – NYT

 

 

Celebrating its 111th anniversary, the Hayes Valley Carnival is back this Saturday the 16th, 12–5pm with free performances by Circus Bella & The Prescott Circus Theatre. Event info here.

 

 

“The Intuitive Realtor®-Healer, an agent in Wisconsin, offers to unblock your chakras and create in-home altars for manifesting in addition to a 40-acre piece of land in Prairie du Sac for $1.6 million.” Curbed: These are The Woo-woo Agents of Real Estate

 

 

Tired of the same old? For your dining and drinking pleasure, from Eater SF: the latest new SF and Bay Area restaurants and bars